USA - NBA
Prediction :
Indiana Pacers +6
Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder is on deck on Friday night at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The Pacers beat OKC in Game 3 in midweek to retake the lead in the series at 2-1. Check out our match prediction below!
If there were any lingering doubts around whether the Pacers deserved to be in the Finals, those were likely put to bed on Wednesday night when they had all the answers in the fourth quarter. In their first final in a quarter of a century, a 116-107 Game 3 victory in front of a packed home crowd has taken Indiana two games away from their first NBA title.
Time for OKC to panic? Not quite! The Thunder found themselves in a similar position against the Nuggets in the Western Conference semi-final, down one after the first game before responding with a thumping 43-point victory in Game 2. Then, after dropping Game 3 in Denver, OKC produced a resilient performance to level proceedings in Game 4 before going on to clinch the series in seven. Deja vu, perhaps? Let’s get into the key stats.
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Form
Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
12 Jun 2025 - NBA
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
9 Jun 2025 - NBA
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
12 Jun 2025 - NBA
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5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
9 Jun 2025 - NBA
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18 May 2025 - NBA
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
12 Jun 2025 - NBA
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10 May 2025 - NBA
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
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Indiana Pacers - Oklahoma City Thunder: Form Analysis
Players list
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Indiana Pacers & Oklahoma City Thunder Squad Analysis
For the Thunder, this season has been about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but the Pacers strangled him into one of his most tame performances of the postseason.
The reigning MVP has been putting up 30+ points with ease most nights during the Playoffs, but in midweek, he was limited to a tepid 24 points, including just six trips to the charity stripe.
Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren combined for 46 points. However, Myles Turner locked up Holmgren expertly down the stretch, while Andrew Nembhard restricted SGA to just a single bucket in the entire Q4.
Is there is case to be made that Bennedict Mathurin was the best Canadian on the court in G3?
Well, it would be difficult to leave him out of the conversation, having delivered 27 points in 22 minutes on 9/12 shooting and 7/8 from the free-throw line.
We called for a bigger performance from Tyrese Haliburton after Game 2, and he did just that in the last match, racking up 12 points and seven assists on 55% shooting by halftime. The Pacers’ point guard ended just shy of a triple-double - 22 points, 11 assists and nine rebounds.
However, while Haliburton has been the driving force for Indiana, it was T.J. McConnell who placed his signature hustle on Game 3. In 15 minutes, he had five steals, 10 points and five assists, which brought the energy back to his team and the home crowd at just the right time.
Indiana Pacers - Oklahoma City Thunder Key Points
- The Thunder have lost their last seven NBA Finals road matches.
- The Thunder are 0-8 ATS in away games this postseason.
- The team playing at home has covered the spread in nine of the last 10 games involving the Thunder.
- The Thunder are 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games.
- The Pacers have won nine of their last 12 games as underdogs.
Our Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
Let’s first make it clear, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been far too good this season to suggest that they are out of this series. In fact, we may even go as far as to say that we expect them to win this match.
However, this line is just a little too tempting to overlook the Pacers, who have relished the underdog role this entire postseason. They're 2-1 up in the series and have outright won nine of 12 when installed as the underdog in the Playoffs, while OKC are now 6-11 ATS in 17. Our Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction is Indiana Pacers +6.0.
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder - Other Interesting Predictions
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points