WTA - WTA London - Queen's

WTA 86 Germany
Tatjana María
14/06/2025 14:30
WTA 8 USA
Madison Keys

Prediction :

 

Over 19.5 games to be played

 

Tatjana Maria is in another major grass court semi-final. The qualifier must beat second-seeded Madison Keys to reach the final of this WTA 500 tournament at Queen's Club in London. Here's our match prediction.

Maria remains a tough player to beat on grass despite now being aged 37. The 2022 Wimbledon semi-finalist is one win away from her first WTA Tour grass court final since 2018, her only title decider at this level.

This week has seen her win five matches with only Karolina Muchova taking a set off her. The quarter-finals saw her beat Elena Rybakina in straight sets. Maria is 66th in the live rankings.

That's 60 places below her American opponent. Keys has won all three of her previous matches against Maria with one played on this surface. That was in the 2015 Wimbledon Championships,

Madison Keys  is just one win away from her fourth grass court final. Three titles have been won in the past by Keys on this surface, all in England.

Two matches have been played by the American this week. A straight sets victory over Anastasia Zakharova was followed by a much tougher match on Friday. Keys had to come from a set down to defeat Diana Shnaider.

We tip over 19.5 games to be played.

Tatjana María vs Madison Keys Form

Tatjana María and Madison Keys Last Matches

Tatjana María Last matches
L W W W W W
Wins

5/6 (83%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

13 Jun 2025 - WTA London - Queen's

Tatjana María
2 :  0
Elena Rybakina

11 Jun 2025 - WTA London - Queen's

Karolina Muchova
1 :  2
Tatjana María

9 Jun 2025 - WTA London - Queen's

Leylah Annie Fernandez
0 :  2
Tatjana María

8 Jun 2025 - WTA London - Queen's

Tatjana María
2 :  0
Arina Rodionova

7 Jun 2025 - WTA London - Queen's

Tatjana María
2 :  0
Hao-Ching Chan

2 Jun 2025 - WTA 125K Birmingham, Great Britain Women Singles

Valentina Ryser
2 :  0
Tatjana María
Madison Keys Last matches
W W W L W W
Wins

5/6 (83%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

13 Jun 2025 - WTA London - Queen's

Diana Shnaider
1 :  2
Madison Keys

11 Jun 2025 - WTA London - Queen's

Anastasia Zakharova
0 :  2
Madison Keys

4 Jun 2025 - WTA French Open

Madison Keys
1 :  2
Coco Gauff

2 Jun 2025 - WTA French Open

Madison Keys
2 :  0
Hailey Baptiste

31 May 2025 - WTA French Open

Madison Keys
2 :  1
Sofia Kenin

29 May 2025 - WTA French Open

Madison Keys
2 :  0
Katie Boulter

Tatjana María - Madison Keys Key Points

  1. Over 19.5 games have been played in each of Maria's last three matches.
  2. Four of the last five matches played by Keys have had over 19.5 games played in them.
  3. Over 19.5 games were played in two of the three previous matches between Keys and Maria. That includes their only grass court meeting.
  4. A 7-5 or 7-6 set would boost our prediction's chances of success. Keys has played two in her last three grass court matches.

Our Tatjana María vs Madison Keys Prediction

Madison Keys is the short-priced favorite to take on either Qinwen Zheng or Amanda Anisimova in Sunday's final. This is not going to be an easy semi-final for the second-seed. Keys had to go to three sets to win her quarter-final and this could well be another tough match.

Tatjana Maria has won 73 of her 110 grass court matches. This week has seen her beat three Grand Slam finalists, including 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina. Our Tatjana Maria v Madison Keys prediction is over 19.5 games to be played.